As the quarantine drags on, the future becomes more and more murky. Right now, the only certain thing is today. Tomorrow, let alone weeks and months after, are mere guesswork at this point, for everyone, because so much depends on what happens next… do we find a vaccine, does it work, what is the social reaction to it, do we work through it, does the virus come back – much like flu does – with different strands? How do businesses react to this? Do we find a way to combat new problems arising every day? How do we deal as a society, psycho-socially?
There is no answer right now. There are some pretty good guesses, and some very diligent work, and some very probable outcomes. But at the moment, certainty is one thing we do not have, and even that is quite probably going to influence how we behave in the near future, because the lack of certainty, especially when constant, can shift not only personal psychology but also how we react as a group… and humanity tends to divide itself into several groups at any one time to say the least.
Among the most pressing questions about our future is the one about how we will continue to work. It is also an unavoidable one. Whether or not we find a cure, whether or not we return to the cinema experience or decide for streaming as the sole approach to our movie watching moments, whether or not we become more or less sociable on the whole due to the social distancing, we will need to continue to work to keep going as a not only local but global society – and by work I do not merely mean work from home.
Most people have gotten used to that by now, at least in some way. As we keep going, those who have had little to no experience with work from home are undoubtedly going to get better and more at ease with their new work schedule; but what of the productions lines and the broken supply chains? Here in France, for instance, there have been reports of not only definite changes in supply and demand (footnote 1), but of companies refusing to pay for goods as normal, using the quarantine and work from home as an excuse. In my experience thus far in France, delays in payments and irregular paying are a bit endemic here anyhow, but now, with the disruption of normal schedule, there is a whole new level to just how much payments can be skipped on… and this in itself is adding an extra burden to everyone, as the money needs to move to keep the economy going (this was in part discussed in the news a few weeks back).
With behaviours like that of the French, there is very little that can be done that does not require legal or governmental level mediation; if someone practises avoidance of payments on a larger level, the disruption to normal, everyday trading and work is great enough, and precarious enough, in those times – but when things get rough, such as right now, for instance, these practices will end up pushing many businesses (who may themselves be pressed for payment by their respective suppliers, and may actually honour their financial duties to them as far as possible) to the brink of bankruptcy and beyond, thus adding more strain not only onto the economy overall, but also on the state, who will be expected to provide benefits for the unemployed and possibly to bail out at least some businesses.
Even with good and honest business practices, all work is always subject to changes. Civil unrest, natural disasters and difficult weather are all factors in how we work both locally and internationally; I have had a chance to observe behaviour around all of these, and can testify that often, we tend to choose to ignore and just push rather than stop and think how to work around it. Many, for instance, fail to consider politics and the change they may bring into our world in their equation; and yet, much of what happens in the world does and has always shifted how we do business – be it because the producing party is now encumbered in some way, or there is a war, or an embargo, or simply because the delivery becomes problematic in some way. All these things may shift prices; they may shift supply and demand in some, however insignificant ways… but even insignificant ways may mean a lot for a business in the long run. Palm oil controversies, for instance, can spell disaster for anyone who cannot cut muster on definite transparency… and that can hit the innocent middleman (who may have been lied to) as much as someone who is actually using illegal logging for harvesting. Even simple events like local and national festivals often create unwelcome shifts in how a business operates, despite the fact that they, at least, are predictable… despite that, many do not account for them, nor do they truly consider what a festival might mean for them specifically. If, for instance, you are hoping for your Chinese or Indian supplier to create your goods and deliver them around the time of great festivities, like the Chinese New Year or Divali, you are not considering the scope of the events, and making promises to the client at the other end of this chain is ill advised.
Covid-19 pandemic is not much different… the only difference is the scope, duration, the required shift in how we work and the uncertainty it brings with it. We know the Chinese New Year celebrations will come to an end. We know Christmas comes once a year. With epidemics of this sort, there is no telling what can happen next, and this is with us already having observed several perhaps less dramatic pandemics in the recent past, not to mention all the historic reference to the pandemics of centuries past. Mr Gates had, for instance, warned that there is a high likelihood of another pandemic as the H1N1 pandemic came and went; it was, in a way, only a matter of time (footnote 2). His suppositions are supported by simple observation of our past history – pandemics exist, perhaps always will and they can and do hit us unexpectedly and with immense force.
The only difference now is that currently, we can do far more against them than was possible throughout many historic epidemics, because our science is now advanced enough that a battle against such a pandemic is possible.
This does not, however, solve our work problems. However well we can deal with the actual health issues, this does not exclude repeat necessary measures of safety. It does not exclude us having to find a way around broken supply chains, delays in payments, logistics issues and so much more. Some factories seem to be back to work… but that doesn’t mean that the workers are safe, nor does it ensure that their work will continue as it used to. Should new measures be put in place, should more disruption happen at their clients’ end, their efforts may be in vain.
One solution is perhaps innovation. With more technology at the basic end of production lines, we could be looking at fully automated processes that can be controlled literally from home. But, and leaving aside, for now, the human factor, the potential vast unemployment should we try to hurry through this process rather than find ways to retrain and therefore lower the amount of people in need of governmental aid, is this process safe? Can it be efficient? Can it be hijacked, much like our smart tech is subject to potential hacking?
As more and more people of all ages are capable of cybercrime, as it becomes easier, are we looking at an angry, bored twelve-year-old who will, for the fun of it, hack into a fully automated factory and disrupt or even destroy it? Similar cases, on a far smaller level (relatively smaller?), have already happened. And this is without considering new kinds of terrorism, aggressive ideologies and even worker strikes.
Ultimately, the Covid-19 pandemic will come to an end, one way or another. But this is, perhaps, a wake-up call. We now see, with great certainty, just how much a great disruption like an illness can disrupt our lives… including our work. There are potentials for so many further problems arising from this – scarcity, poverty, breakdown of social behaviours, work changes that we cannot predict even now, this far into the epidemic. One thing however is certain – that, once this is over, we cannot and should not go back to normal and ignore what happened. This is what we may be tempted to do – after a lot of bad, it is natural to want to go back to what seems to be the opposite, what used to be the norm. But if we learn from this and previous epidemics, then we must be aware of the fact that going back to normal is tantamount to pretending something did not happen. If we choose that, we may also choose to ignore the need for changes in how we work until we are shaken by another such event in the future.
Is it likely?
Chances are that it is, yes.
If, however, we consider what difficulties we have encountered, and try to find good solutions for them, we may be able to get through any similar future problems with less trouble than we are having to deal with now. This is not about activism, or politics, or beliefs. It is about being pragmatic, and finding ways around problems we encounter and we think we may encounter. Perhaps we have forgotten just how important such pragmatism is, but it is what will keep us going.
Change is always inevitable… our reaction to is, however, in our hands.
Footnote 1: typical of everywhere now, especially where food is concerned… Forbes has reported that lettuce in US was being left to wilt in the fields, as the biggest buyers are always schools and restaurants, none of which are operating as normal now, thus resulting in far less demand for the greens… other food suppliers are struggling in similar ways everywhere
Footnote 2: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/A-Better-Response-to-the-Next-Pandemic